Friday, July 25, 2025

Alternate view of the VCCM June 2025 Data using a Candlestick chart

 This is a chart using the VCCM 5/25/50/75/95 percentile data to see the ranges of the various asset classes.

This represents the 10 year horizon data found here: Vanguard Capital Markets Model® forecasts

The High/Low (narrow vertical line) represent the range of the 5th to 95th percentile.

The open/close (the range of the box in the middle) represents the range of the 25th to 75th percentile.

I think this give a pretty nice look at the range of their estimates and may be more useful to see the "expected outcomes" the meat of the 50% in the middle seems like a reasonable path.




Tuesday, June 3, 2025

SIFMA vs. FTEXX 1-day yields

 Interesting look at the SIFMA index in relation to the FTEXX one-day yields. The interesting thing is that the SIFMA index appears to be a lagging indicator, not a leading indicator. It appears that the FTEXX yields adjust before the index updates. The index reflects market movements not leads them.